Are Mortgage Rates Really That Volatile?

A few weeks back rates increased to the highest levels in 2 years just as the housing market was reporting that we are in for a great spring sales season. The famous "now is the time to buy" turned into "buy now or else". As of a week ago however we are enjoying a very special and surprising treat... rates have returned to near historical record lows just in time for the April and May home buyer's season. As I type this (April 15th) 30 year fixed rates are around 3.50% and the 15 year at 2.75%..... wow!

You may be asking; "Are rates really that volatile?" Yes, and if only you could see what we see. After 11 years of research, analysis and speedy decision making we have learned one very important truth... it is all about timing. When we inform a mortgage customer that rates are volatile and that they could go up at any moment I truly can't blame them if they think that it's a sales tactic. The challenging truth is that fixed mortgage rates CAN CHANGE AT ANY MOMENT. Take a peak at the picture below. This is a snap shot of today's trading of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Think of MBS as the index that measures the performance of the stock index that drives mortgage rates. While that rough definition is not entirely accurate it is the best way to explain it for now. As you can see, the graph is all over the place! This screen shot is from a fairly normal day... April 15th from 8:30am to 3pm. If any of those dips on the graph were to stay in the down or up area, rates could have changed mid day.... yes mid day. Now you see what we see and that rates truly can change at anytime. Most days they do not but there are many, many times when we can see by this graph that rates will improve or get worse and that is when we say; "Would you like to lock your rate... it could go up at any time?" 
- Pete Green, President of Dynamic Mortgage Services in Rehoboth Beach, DE